The determinants of fish exports in Uganda (1997-2012)

Abstract

This study was sought to examine the determinants of fish exports in Uganda by utilizing the time series data collected for a period of 1997-2012 in which formal fish exports of Uganda showed a considerably stable increase until after the year 2005 when the fish exports started to drop. The study was undertaken basing on specific objectives; to determine the effect of Terms of Trade on fish exports; to examine the effect of GDP per capita on fish exports; to assess the effect of Real Exchange Rate on fish exports and to find out the effect of domestic inflation rate on fish exports. In establishing the effect of the above selected determinants of fish exports, the study adopted a quantitative approach using econometric techniques like graphical analysis, normality test, multi collinearity test, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test and the multiple linear regression model to establish the empirical impact of factors like terms of trade, GDP per capita, real exchange rate and domestic inflation rate on fish export. Secondary annual time series data from Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) was used to estimate the model. The empirical results revealed that, terms of trade, GDP per capita have a significant influence in determining the growth of fish exports in Uganda, while real exchange rate and domestic inflation rate have got insignificant impact on the growth of fish exports in Uganda. It is therefore recommended that government aims to ensure favorable terms of trade of fish exports on the international market and also fight poverty among its citizens so as to boost growth of GDP per capita in the country. However concern should also be placed on these other factors studied (real exchange rate and domestic inflation rate), although proved insignificant in determining the performance of fish exports, if well strengthened, can also improve on the performance Uganda’s fish export.